Resolución AN N° 13310-ELEC. Por la cual se incorpora a la resolución an n°13131-elec de 15 de febrero de 2019 y su modificación, el anexo b que contiene el plan de expansión del sistema interconectado nacional, correspondiente al año 2018, presentado por la empresa de transmisión eléctrica, s.a. anexo iv.

Fecha de publicación20 Mayo 2019
Fecha23 Abril 2019
EmisorAUTORIDAD NACIONAL DE LOS SERVICIOS PÚBLICOS
No. 28777-A Gaceta Oficial Digital, lunes 20 de mayo de 2019 1
ANEXO IV
(De la foja 301 a la foja 400)
AUTORIDAD NACIONAL DE LOS SERVICIOS PÚBLICOS
Resolución AN No. 13310 -Elec Panamá, 23 de abril de 2019
“Por la cual se incorpora a la Resolución AN No.13131-Elec de 15 de febrero
de 2019 y su modificación, el Anexo B que contiene el Plan de Expansión del
Sistema Interconectado Nacional, correspondiente al año 2018, presentado por
la Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica, S.A.”
No. 28777-A Gaceta Oficial Digital, lunes 20 de mayo de 2019 2
Tomo I: Estudios Básicos
Página No. 164 Plan de Expansión del Sistema Interconectado Nacional
Año 2018
Escenario Alto u Optimista
Tabla 56: Escenario Alto u Optimista
PRONÓSTICO DE LA DEMANDA ELÉCTRICA DE PANAMÁ
Alto INICIAL FINAL
D%GWH D%MW Bajo
1970 1979 8.9 8.3 Medio
Histórico 1980 1989 4.6 4 .3 Alto
1990 1999 5.6 5.5
1990 2017 5.1 4.8
2017 2018 5.1 3.6
Pronóstico 20 18 2022 5.0 4.5
2018 2032 4.8 4.4
AÑO GWHRES GWHCOM GWHIND GWHOFI GWHALU GWHAUT GWHBLQ GWHOTR GWHPER GWH D%GWH MW D%MW
Residencial Comercial Industrial Oficial Alumbrado
Autoconsumo
Bloque Otros Pérdid as Carga
1970-1979 8.8 8.0 5.9 15.3 7.0 0.9 4.9 9.6 11.5 8.9 8.3
1980-1989 3 .3 2.7 3.7 2.7 3.7 3 .2 18.0 4.6 9.5 4.6 4.3
1990-1999 5.6 9.6 7.4 3 .6 4.4 -3.0 -77.7 -100.0 2.9 5.6 5.5
1990-2017 5.7 7.2 3.2 3.9 5.9 -3.1 4.3 -6.2 2 .8 5.1 4.8
2017-2018 3 .3 6.8 2.0 4.6 5.0 5.0 19.4 -19.5 3 .4 5.1 3.6
2018-2022 3.0 6.6 3.5 4 .7 5.7 7.0 18.6 11.9 1.2 5.0 4.5
2018-2032 2.6 6.4 1.8 4.7 5.2 3.9 9.8 6.2 3.0 4.8 4.4
1970 20 8.9 222.5 96.2 69.5 14.0 8.7 83.5 7.0 9 1.4 801.7 138.9
1971 254.5 246.1 110.7 79.3 16.2 9.4 51.7 7.5 8 4.0 859.4 7.2 148.6 7.0
1972 30 0.8 273.2 114.7 104.1 18.7 9.1 3 9.1 10.1 110.6 9 80.4 14.1 169.6 14.1
1973 33 6.9 307.9 128.4 106.9 18.7 8 .6 69.3 7.3 155.9 1,139.9 16.3 175.7 3.6
1974 343.1 3 40.8 124.9 120.0 19.0 3 .5 18.4 11.0 167.3 1,148.0 0.7 188.3 7.2
1975 361.4 351.8 132.7 142.1 19.9 4.1 14.7 14.3 173.3 1,214.3 5.8 196.6 4.4
1976 393.4 364.2 129.1 177.8 20.8 4.6 38 .6 14.6 205.6 1,348.7 11.1 227.6 15.8
1977 402.5 396 .6 127.9 196.5 22.9 5.2 93 .8 14.7 190.2 1,450.3 7.5 235.7 3.6
1978 413.1 419.1 142.5 22 3.5 23.8 7.5 23.1 15.6 20 0.9 1,469.1 1.3 252.1 7.0
1979 444.7 445.0 161.8 250.2 25.8 9.4 128.0 16.0 243.1 1,724.0 17.4 28 5.4 13.2
1980 457.0 479.2 184.4 2 81.2 3 1.0 9.6 16.0 13.9 2 84.2 1,756.5 1.9 305.5 7.0
1981 474.6 498.0 188.4 2 87.4 32.8 10.8 46.5 15.8 309 .2 1,863.5 6.1 319.9 4.7
1982 499.0 532.0 2 18.0 3 11.3 34 .7 12.3 51.4 16.1 3 55.7 2 ,030.5 9 .0 362.2 13.2
1983 527.9 567.9 218.8 337.2 3 6.8 12.7 132.8 16.5 342.9 2,193.5 8.0 375.0 3.5
1984 521.5 574.4 228.7 32 6.6 37.1 12.4 98.8 17.0 40 9.4 2,225.9 1.5 385.8 2.9
1985 559.6 609.8 252.4 3 50.0 37.7 12.7 104.9 17.0 46 8.8 2,412.9 8 .4 424.0 9.9
1986 606.9 64 7.7 267.6 362.6 3 9.3 12.9 91.8 16.3 520.6 2 ,565.7 6 .3 44 5.9 5.2
1987 662.7 678.4 30 5.5 380 .1 41.2 13.3 91.0 18.9 557.2 2,748.3 7.1 474.8 6.5
1988 655.1 60 5.5 246.7 3 63.8 42 .3 12.9 116.8 20.0 516.8 2,579.9 -6 .1 4 70.9 -0.8
1989 613.6 6 10.7 254.9 356 .7 4 3.0 12.8 71.0 2 0.9 641.1 2,624 .7 1.7 446 .2 -5.2
1990 637.3 633.6 276.5 354.7 4 4.1 12.4 72.2 22 .2 693.1 2,746.1 4 .6 4 64.4 4.1
1991 673.4 703.1 3 21.1 349.6 45.1 12.5 59.0 22.1 710.7 2 ,896.6 5.5 4 88.5 5.2
1992 716.3 754.1 366.2 367.8 45.5 13.1 26.8 21.6 700.2 3,011.6 4.0 518.0 6.0
1993 749.8 839.6 409.9 392.8 44.7 13.3 15.6 20.5 712.9 3,199.1 6.2 541.2 4.5
1994 788.5 913.1 429.7 416.2 4 4.5 13.7 46.4 19.8 728.1 3,400 .0 6.3 591.5 9.3
1995 84 8.2 1,000.9 459.2 463.0 52.5 14.6 12.8 18.4 749.8 3 ,619.4 6 .5 619.2 4.7
1996 863.2 1,041.9 467.3 49 0.4 60.2 14.9 27.9 18.2 8 11.8 3,795.8 4.9 6 39.9 3.3
1997 937.4 1,181.7 471.5 508.1 62.8 23.5 99.9 17.2 952.3 4,254.4 12.1 706 .6 10.4
1998 1,004.6 1,342.0 487.6 477.0 64.4 16.7 0.0 0.0 90 3.5 4,2 95.8 1.0 726.4 2.8
1999 1,041.9 1,449.0 524.3 488.3 6 5.1 9.4 0.0 0.0 896 .5 4 ,474.5 4.2 754.5 3.9
2000 1,118.1 1,569.2 506.4 542 .7 54.9 9.6 0.0 0.2 1,166.4 4,96 7.5 11.0 777.0 3.0
2001 1,161.3 1,619.0 48 0.6 577.9 81.2 10.7 0.0 3.2 1,066.0 4,9 99.9 0.7 839.3 8.0
2002 1,261.0 1,733.6 438.6 581.3 79.2 9 .0 0.0 10.3 1,108.7 5,221.7 4.4 857.4 2.2
2003 1,341.2 1,947.9 321.7 589.9 94 .9 8.6 0.0 2 .7 1,035.8 5,342.6 2 .3 882.9 3.0
2004 1,437.7 2,065.2 336.4 635.8 106.8 5.0 0.0 7.7 976.4 5,571.0 4.3 925.0 4.8
2005 1,495.8 2,178.3 34 3.5 640.9 110.2 4.9 0.0 7.5 9 29.9 5,711.0 2 .5 94 6.3 2 .3
2006 1,534.2 2,133.4 49 0.7 6 55.0 116.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 92 7.8 5,861.3 2.6 9 71.3 2.6
2007 1,628.5 2,342.8 506.1 696.8 120.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 910.9 6,208 .8 5.9 1,024.0 5.4
2008 1,647.2 2,471.1 505.9 69 6.1 125.1 7.1 0.0 9.6 924.3 6,386.4 2.9 1,064.3 3.9
2009 1,801.9 2,482.5 562.0 73 2.2 128.5 4.8 23.1 2.9 1,015.8 6,753.7 5.8 1,154.0 8.4
2010 1,974.0 2,651.2 642.9 750.4 131.7 4.6 75.1 2 .7 1,057.6 7,290.3 7.9 1,222.4 5.9
2011 2,084.1 2,879.4 653.0 768.6 136.1 4.7 71.0 2.7 1,122.9 7,722.5 5.9 1,286.5 5.2
2023 3,445.1 6,056.8 781.2 1,310.5 285.5 7.5 6 24.9 5.2 1,603.8 14,120.6 5.1 2,145.7 4.7
2024 3,539.5 6,447.9 796.3 1,372.9 300.3 7.7 739.3 5.4 1,639.9 14,849.2 5.2 2,247.3 4.7
2025 3,633.7 6,8 62.2 810.6 1,438.6 315.7 8.0 778.4 5.7 1,678.5 15,531.3 4.6 2,341.0 4.2
2026 3,727.8 7,299.6 8 23.5 1,507.7 33 1.9 8.2 796.0 5.9 1,910.1 16,410.6 5.7 2 ,463.5 5.2
2027 3,821.6 7,759.8 833.9 1,579.4 348 .7 8.4 8 08.6 6.1 1,967.1 17,133.6 4.4 2,561.6 4.0
2028 3,915.2 8,244.9 842 .8 1,654.5 366.2 8.6 847.7 6.4 2,025.7 17,911.9 4.5 2,6 67.2 4.1
2029 4,008.3 8,749 .0 846 .0 1,730.3 384 .2 8.8 855.4 6 .6 2,084 .3 18,673.2 4 .2 2 ,769.2 3 .8
2030 4,101.0 9,280.9 849.3 1,810.1 403.1 9.1 9 08.8 6.9 2,145.2 19,514.3 4.5 2,88 2.2 4.1
2031 4,193.2 9,838.1 851.3 1,892.5 422 .7 9.3 916.6 7.1 2 ,207.5 20,338 .3 4.2 2,991.8 3.8
2032 4,284.7 10,424.0 852.2 1,978.5 44 3.3 9.5 997.1 7.4 2,272.0 21,268.9 4.6 3 ,116.0 4.2
DEMANDA
ENERGÍA
GWh
DEMANDA
POTENCIA
MW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MW
GWh
301
No. 28777-A Gaceta Oficial Digital, lunes 20 de mayo de 2019 3
Tomo I: Estudios Básicos
Página No. 165 Plan de Expansión del Sistema Interconectado Nacional
Año 2018
Escenario Bajo o Pesimista
Tabla 57: Escenario Bajo o Pesimista
PRONÓSTICO DE LA DEMANDA ELÉCTRICA DE PANAMÁ
Bajo INICIAL FINAL
D%GWH D%MW Bajo
1970 1979 8.9 8.3 Medio
Histórico 1980 1989 4.6 4.3 Alto
1990 1999 5.6 5.5
1990 2017 5.1 4.8
2017 2018 4 .9 3 .4
Pronóstico 20 18 2022 4.6 4.2
2018 2032 4.5 4.1
AÑO GWHRES GWHCOM GWHIND GWHOFI GWHALU GWHAUT GWHBLQ GWHOTR GWHPER GW H D%GWH MW D%MW
Residencial Comercial Industrial Oficial Alumbrado
Autoconsumo
Bloque Otros Pérdid as Carga
1970-1979 8.8 8.0 5.9 15.3 7.0 0.9 4.9 9.6 11.5 8.9 8.3
1980-1989 3 .3 2.7 3.7 2.7 3.7 3 .2 18.0 4.6 9.5 4.6 4.3
1990-1999 5.6 9.6 7.4 3 .6 4.4 -3.0 -77.7 -100.0 2 .9 5.6 5.5
1990-2017 5.7 7.2 3.2 3.9 5.9 -3.1 4.3 -6.2 2 .8 5.1 4 .8
2017-2018 3 .2 6.6 2 .1 4.3 4.8 4.8 19.4 -19.6 3 .3 4.9 3.4
2018-2022 3.0 6.4 1.5 4.4 4.6 -2.2 15.4 0 .6 1.6 4 .6 4.2
2018-2032 2.6 6.2 0.3 4.3 4.7 -0.5 8.8 0.1 3.0 4 .5 4.1
1970 20 8.9 2 22.5 96.2 69.5 14.0 8.7 83.5 7.0 91.4 8 01.7 138.9
1971 254.5 246.1 110.7 79.3 16.2 9.4 51.7 7.5 8 4.0 859.4 7.2 148.6 7.0
1972 30 0.8 273.2 114.7 104.1 18.7 9.1 3 9.1 10.1 110.6 9 80.4 14.1 169.6 14.1
1973 33 6.9 307.9 128.4 106.9 18.7 8 .6 69.3 7.3 155.9 1,139.9 16.3 175.7 3.6
1974 343.1 3 40.8 124.9 120.0 19.0 3 .5 18.4 11.0 167.3 1,148.0 0.7 188.3 7.2
1975 361.4 351.8 132.7 142.1 19.9 4.1 14.7 14.3 173.3 1,214.3 5.8 196.6 4.4
1976 393.4 364 .2 129.1 177.8 20.8 4.6 38 .6 14.6 205.6 1,348.7 11.1 227.6 15.8
1977 402.5 396 .6 127.9 196.5 22.9 5.2 93 .8 14.7 190.2 1,450.3 7.5 235.7 3.6
1978 413.1 419.1 142.5 22 3.5 23.8 7.5 23.1 15.6 20 0.9 1,469.1 1.3 252.1 7.0
1979 444.7 445.0 161.8 250.2 2 5.8 9 .4 128.0 16.0 243.1 1,724.0 17.4 285.4 13.2
1980 457.0 479.2 184.4 2 81.2 3 1.0 9.6 16.0 13.9 2 84.2 1,756.5 1.9 305.5 7.0
1981 474.6 498.0 188.4 2 87.4 32.8 10.8 46.5 15.8 309 .2 1,863.5 6.1 319.9 4.7
1982 499.0 532.0 2 18.0 3 11.3 34 .7 12.3 51.4 16.1 3 55.7 2 ,030.5 9 .0 362.2 13.2
1983 527.9 567.9 218.8 337.2 3 6.8 12.7 132.8 16.5 342.9 2,193.5 8.0 375.0 3.5
1984 521.5 574.4 228.7 32 6.6 37.1 12.4 98.8 17.0 40 9.4 2,225.9 1.5 385.8 2.9
1985 559.6 609.8 252.4 3 50.0 37.7 12.7 104.9 17.0 46 8.8 2,412.9 8 .4 424.0 9.9
1986 606.9 64 7.7 267.6 362.6 3 9.3 12.9 91.8 16.3 520.6 2 ,565.7 6 .3 44 5.9 5.2
1987 662.7 678.4 30 5.5 380 .1 41.2 13.3 91.0 18.9 557.2 2,748.3 7.1 474.8 6.5
1988 655.1 60 5.5 246.7 3 63.8 42 .3 12.9 116.8 20.0 516.8 2,579.9 -6 .1 4 70.9 -0.8
1989 613.6 6 10.7 254.9 356 .7 4 3.0 12.8 71.0 2 0.9 641.1 2,624 .7 1.7 446 .2 -5.2
1990 637.3 633 .6 276.5 3 54.7 4 4.1 12.4 72.2 22.2 6 93.1 2,746.1 4 .6 4 64.4 4.1
1991 673.4 703.1 3 21.1 349.6 45.1 12.5 59.0 22.1 710.7 2 ,896.6 5.5 4 88.5 5.2
1992 716.3 754.1 366.2 367.8 45.5 13.1 26.8 21.6 700.2 3,011.6 4.0 518.0 6.0
1993 749.8 839 .6 409.9 392.8 44.7 13.3 15.6 20.5 712.9 3 ,199.1 6.2 541.2 4.5
1994 788.5 913.1 429.7 416.2 4 4.5 13.7 46.4 19.8 728.1 3,400 .0 6.3 591.5 9.3
1995 84 8.2 1,000.9 4 59.2 463.0 52.5 14.6 12.8 18.4 749.8 3,619.4 6.5 6 19.2 4 .7
1996 863.2 1,041.9 467.3 49 0.4 60.2 14.9 27.9 18.2 8 11.8 3,795.8 4.9 6 39.9 3.3
1997 937.4 1,181.7 471.5 508.1 62.8 23.5 99.9 17.2 9 52.3 4,254.4 12.1 706 .6 10.4
1998 1,004.6 1,342.0 487.6 4 77.0 64.4 16.7 0.0 0.0 90 3.5 4,2 95.8 1.0 726.4 2.8
1999 1,041.9 1,449.0 524.3 488.3 6 5.1 9.4 0.0 0.0 896 .5 4 ,474.5 4.2 754.5 3.9
2023 3,431.3 5,977.8 713.5 1,284.9 272.6 5.1 570.4 3 .3 1,626.3 13,885.2 4.9 2,110.0 4.5
2024 3,523.0 6,350.6 716.6 1,341.0 286.0 5.1 594.3 3.3 1,679.5 14,499 .3 4.4 2,194.4 4.0
2025 3,614.5 6,745.2 718.9 1,400.2 300 .0 5.2 6 16.8 3.3 1,703.6 15,107.5 4.2 2,277.1 3.8
2026 3,705.6 7,161.7 719.9 1,462.0 3 14.6 5.2 69 1.8 3.3 1,899.8 15,963.7 5.7 2,3 96.4 5.2
2027 3,796.3 7,600.7 719.2 1,526.4 329 .8 5.2 764.6 3.3 1,957.7 16,703.2 4.6 2,497.3 4.2
2028 3,886.6 8,0 63.0 717.2 1,593.5 34 5.8 5.2 796 .7 3.3 2 ,017.6 17,428.9 4.3 2,595.2 3.9
2029 3,976.4 8,546.8 712.3 1,662.4 362.3 5.2 808.7 3.3 2,078.7 18,156.1 4 .2 2,69 2.6 3 .8
2030 4,065.6 9,053.7 705.5 1,733.4 3 79.4 5.2 815.4 3.3 2,141.5 18,902.9 4.1 2,792.0 3.7
2031 4,154.2 9,584.0 697.8 1,806.5 3 97.2 5.2 831.0 3.3 2,206.0 19,685.2 4.1 2 ,895.7 3 .7
2032 4,242.1 10,141.2 6 89.3 1,882.5 415.9 5.2 8 83.6 3.3 2,272.8 20,535.9 4.3 3,0 08.6 3.9
DEMANDA
ENERGÍA
GWh
DEMANDA
POTENCIA
MW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MW
GWh
302

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